![]() ![]() Indeed, as of July 12, interest rate traders assigned a 95% probability to the FOMC raising rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, to a target range of 5.25% to 5.50% at the next Fed meeting.īy the same token, traders bet there was a 5% chance of the Fed standing pat on rates. Call it a "pause" or a "skip," either way, market participants expect the Fed to hike at its next meeting. The FOMC had raised the short-term federal funds rate 10 consecutive times before electing to keep it unchanged when it convened in June. (Pro tip: as closely scrutinized as the Fed statement might be, market participants are usually even more keen on what the Fed chair has to say in the press conference.)Īs for the next Fed meeting, it begins on July 25 and will end with a policy statement on July 26 at 2 pm Eastern. The Fed chief then holds a press conference at 2:30 pm. These meetings last two days, and conclude with the FOMC releasing its policy decision at 2 pm Eastern time. When you consider the Fed's dual mandate of promoting both "maximum" employment and stable prices against the backdrop of financial sector stress and rising recession odds, no wonder investors are obsessed with the question of "when is the next Fed meeting?"įor the record, the central bank's rate-setting committee is called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Īs you can see from the FOMC meeting calendar below, the committee meets eight times a year. Ultimately, the jobs outlook remains robust, and that puts the Fed in something of a pickle. Even more troubling for the Fed was the rise in average hourly earnings – an indication that wage pressure remains to the upside. ![]() ![]() Although the June jobs report showed the slowest pace of hiring since the early innings of the pandemic, payrolls continued to expand at a healthy clip. Most importantly, there's the labor market, which remains stronger than the Fed would probably like. A separate survey of professional forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia projects real GDP growth of just 1.3% this year.įor context, in the decade prior to the pandemic, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.3%. The GDP outlook for 2023 is unquestionably downbeat too, with some forecasters putting the probability of recession at 60% or greater. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.0% during the first three months of 2023, down from the 2.6% growth seen in the final quarter of 2022. Gross domestic product decelerated once again in the first quarter, hurt by high inflation, rising interest rates and turmoil in the banking sector. "The risks to the economy remain in place, but today's data should provide the Fed with an indication they might not have to do much more."Īnd then there's the bigger picture. "The Fed cannot say 'job done,' but a declining trend in core inflation alleviates some pressure on the Fed to feel like they need to do a lot more," says Steve Wyett, chief investment strategist at BOK Financial. What is a Recession? 10 Facts You Need to Know ![]()
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